Excerbating Economy

Let me be truly stern and not so mild that the hippocracy to show yourself gigantic at a particular time with absolutely nothing in the pocket to cherish about except of making exaggeration of the circumstances can make you more dwarf than what you actually not poses. So kind enough when you're in the gathering of flocky democracy , where people may make you feel dumb as you were never before.

Once in a thousand year scenerio pulped in front of Indian government and one of the fastest growing economy (Although Bangladesh was doing comparatively better with the growth rate of 8% and still doing well). Indian high class economist those who left the India having the conflict with the government predicted so early that it would be vulnerable for economies such as India who is growing with bullet track pace to impose such stringent lockdown, as the vulnerability has always been high due to fluctuations in demand and supply. But not so hazardous has ever been before, what government of India currently going through with.

FY 2020-21 Q1 April - June statistics revealed and when it came out it became a matter of great hullabaloo among the peers of red carpet ,who were till now covering the dust under the carpet with the intention of absolutely showing no dust on the surface gone in vain. Staggering decline of -23.9% in the GDP not so less than a nightmare for the Finance Ministry but to recallibrate it will be more so tough and backbone breaking for the Contengency Fund Of India as Consolidated Fund have seen more drastic scenerios in the passed months.

National Statistical Organization's former Chief Statistician Arnob Sen in an interview with Karan Thapar on The Wire comprehensively said and take away the government in his pocket by saving them as he said ,"It would be no less than 34-41% ,so if it is still floating in between 20-24% ,we can say we have done good enough to kept it in control". Let's put aside his comments and back to ground that the manufacturing sector plunges down to -39% , service sector looks grim at -41% and infrastructure developing especially home building looks catastrophic at -50% , what the only positive take away from here is that the sigh of relief from the agriculture sector which took a short flight of +3% to +3.4% and save the economy to plunge at it's worst as it is already in but still a protonic breath.

                                (Source of data :- Scroll.in)

Reserve Bank Of India's Dividend giving ceremony to the Indian government couldn't make it any good outcomes as it gone from ₹1.2 lack crore to later 8 lack crore ,, however there were more OMO's (Open Market Operations) in the latter and burdens were more on the shoulders of the banks to raise the money from the markets to provide more financial assistance to hope having entrepreneurs. India's exports has also seen  downgrading size as in the Indian Ocean region it plunges to less 20% than on a usual day. Which hampers the foreign outcomes but not so because India has more base in the European Union and American soil.

On the comparison basis 3 months back World Bank clearly suggested that the humongous economy will be in disdain in the upcoming months as they predicted that China will be growing at the pace of +1.2% and India with +1.4% in the current financial year. But reciprocity of the stringent lockdown made the things worst as India imposed most toughest restrictions in the form of lockdown by locking the inter-state and intra-state transportation ,total shutdown of manufacturing industries which took away more than 2 crore jobs and many of them still not counted ,left unorganised sector in total awe. At the same time and on the other part of the story China is continuously growing with the pace of +3.4% in the current financial year. Makes India amongst the worst performer in the G-20 economies.

             (Source : IMF in collab with Investopedia)

Chief Economic Adviser Of Indian Government young and intellectual peer Arvind Subramaniam compared Indian economy more or same as the size of Britain and state that Britain's GDP plunges to -20.4% is not a bad deal yet to overt, that Britain faced more deaths and community transmission than compare to India. However Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan stated earlier that India must ease the lockdown stringency to feel a less haphazard in the economy but Narendra Modi's statement "People are first , economy comes later ,as economy can be recovered but people can't be" ,echo sounds good but so ludicrous in practice.

         (Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme          Implementation, published by Scroll.in)

NSO's data clearly marked the statement that it would take more than 5-6 quarter or may be 2-3 long years to reach at the optimam level. Government shouldn't not say a whisper about the positive sign in this , even if now they predict something out of the box to solace the common mass or opposition party ,it may tend to be more awful. In between GST proves a curse which implemented on July 2017 , which promises a healthy and equal growth for all states and provide them the reparations for 5 years from the date of it's implementation , as government sacrifices their part of service tax and cess and now States demanding back their GST reparations which is ₹97,000 crore and government not in condition to make any eye to eye contact by Finance Minister saying it's an "Act Of God"  and leaving no option than to raise the money from the OMO's.

Government's Business

Government must refocus on the unorganised sector , which gives employment to more than 40 crore people ,they may come on track if government solidify their income by bringing them into the MGNAREGA ,as it proved only a bliss in the recent months for those who back to their countryside from Manhattan. Must need to focus on the manufacturing sector which is only generating 20-30% of its total capacity in lack of stimulus package and provide them some precautionary relife till it reaches upto maxim. Unorganised sector has huge capacity and providing enough support to the manufacturing sector but not inducting them in GDP counting ,made the data a lot worse , so government reticence must be to include them with organised sector.

Bank has seen increase in NPA with more than 40% , which hampers the hands of banks in providing the loans as they feel the already burden of NPA and can sense more in the future but banks have to play this card. Manufacturing of steel only seen a inclination in export as China started to import more steels due to collapsing price and high manufacturing.

 

Government must follow the Principal of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" which states :- Stimulus Package (as government done a lot with it ) , secondly Quantative Easing and thirdly Structural Reforms (consulting through the superb economist). And on the ground of truth and trust government must also wrap-up the plan for $5 trillion economy till growth don't come into the position of positive.

Conclusion

Sometimes government must be crapahanger to find a way ,always be panglossian may hamper the attitude of feeling monstrous. In this dire harsh time of economy Netizens must curb thier flaucinocihilinilipilification excercise to inflate the issue at it's must and need to listen the pre-emptive ringing bells of the expertise by keeping aside all the trenches and dented image.