Globalised Outlook

India's economic growth narrative has long been underpinned by robust domestic consumption. However, recent trends indicate a shift towards increased reliance on debt to fuel this consumption, raising concerns about financial stability. The surge in unsecured personal loans, primarily for consumption rather than asset creation, mirrors patterns observed in the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. This blog delves into the data and trends that suggest India could be on the brink of a similar financial upheaval. Data Contrary:- Economic Survey Of India The Surge in Household Debt As of June 2024, India's household debt stood at 42.9% of GDP , a significant rise from 36.6% in June 2021 . This increase is primarily driven by a surge in unsecured personal loans, which grew by 20.6% year-on-year in the first half of FY25 . Notably, unsecured loans now constitute 19.7% of GDP, reflecting a growing reliance on short-term credit for consumption. Consumption Over Asset Creation A concerning ...

  Black Swan Events Coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a Black Swan event refers to an incident that is extremely rare, has a severe impact, and is often rationalized in hindsight as predictable. These events are characterized by their unpredictability and massive consequences, making them challenging to prepare for and mitigate. In the context of global economics, wars can act as catalysts for such events by disrupting established systems and creating cascading effects across various sectors. The Immediate Economic Shock of War Wars often lead to immediate disruptions in global markets. For instance, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused significant turmoil in energy markets. Prior to the invasion, Ukraine accounted for 11.5% of the world's wheat exports and 17% of global corn exports . The conflict severely disrupted these supplies, leading to global shortages and price hikes. Additionally, Brent Crude Oil prices surged from $97.93 per barrel on February 25, 2022, to a pe...

                  Image Courtesy:- Getty Images Multilateralism in International Politics: Multilateralism, a cornerstone of international relations, refers to the cooperation of multiple countries on common issues, often institutionalized through organizations like the United Nations, World Trade Organization , and regional groupings such as the European Union (EU) and ASEAN . This system fosters diplomacy, conflict resolution, and collective action, but its relevance and resilience are increasingly being scrutinized.   Impact on Regional Groupings Multilateralism has significantly influenced regional groupings, facilitating trade liberalization, economic integration, and political cooperation. For example:   • EU : Multilateralism has solidified the EU as a global trade bloc, accounting for over 15% of global trade in 2023.   • ASEAN : Initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) hav...

Not just the global order of geopolitics in phase of transition and conflict of interest or self-interest consuming the diplomacy but the new disorder has magnetic charm these days belongs to economics distress. Since the currency and market became the deciding factor in humans life , it's been quite hard to ignore what could be worst for a nation than loosing the enclaves or exclaves but hard to digest worst been the financial scam or crisis, which drags the gigantic economies into the gorge to centuries back.                     (Image courtesy :- Financial Times) Globalization made everything inter-connected , so economies are too. Since this February, invasion of Russia into the Ukraine for territorial gain, fueled the already worsened the situation by the pandemic. During pandemic where West Texas Intermediaries and Gulf crude oil's per barrel price went down to less than $10 , now as Russia as the largest exporter of co...

                       Image Courtesy :- Newslaundry Feudalism was quite enough to differentiate between the proliterate and bourgeois but with gradually as industrialization happened and started spreading its foot deep into the ground it took a fresh Incarnation as Capitalism and that lead to the creation of wider gap in the graph of inequalities. Which started to hamper the mindset of the classes who were and are forced to live under the travestful condition like mices are living in the sewers of the Europe in the 18th century. This widening gap attracted the attention of the governments to do something with an immediate effect to uplift the conditions of those whose daily wages are way below than the fixed standard by the World Bank viz. well needed to do efficiently well in HDI index., viz., Health , Education and Standard of Living. So govt started welfare schemes for impoverished en-masse what you better known...

In the modern pace of industrialization urban employment grown exponentially and spread its wings in dynamic sectors by which workers from every section attracted to the Urban areas but picture remain not the same for the rural areas, where you can easily find the gap in transforming rural lives. Harnessing Agri Sector                                   courtesy by :- Inc42.com To bring the improvement in rural areas one must focus on the employment opportunities ,it could be self-generating by the domiciles or can be provided by the government through various schemes. However government tried muscularly to generate the employment but stuck somewhere in between pass and fail and you can predict the why most of the schemes outcome came as negative impact ; due to enlarging population decade-by-decade , as in last decade it grows with 17.7% , so governments budgetary allocations proves to be ne...